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Bush must fight for right

While Bush administration officials and the members of the Republican establishment downplay the chances of Pat Buchanan in New Hampshire and beyond, GOP primary voters may be thinking something quite different.

From 1985-87, my responsibility was to develop conservative support for Vice President Bush by recruiting individuals and creating opportunities where Mr. Bush could showcase his conservative credentials. I support Mr. Bush again. But ignoring the threat is akin to “know-nothingism” and those who are running Mr. Bush’s campaign had better come to terms with the facts, quickly.

First, many in the Bush camp are spinning the notion that Mr. Buchanan is another John Ashbrook. And like Mr. Ashbrook against Richard Nixon in 1972, Mr. Buchanan will go nowhere against Mr. Bush. This is a wholly wrong analogy and, for Mr. Bush, dangerous on its face by unnecessarily downplaying Mr. Buchanan’s chances. If Mr. Buchanan exceeds low expectations, he will have done “better than expected.” In the game of politics, expectations, though not everything, are nonetheless important. Perceptions drive money, volunteers and how the media reports on your campaign.

But more to the point, the analogy is incorrect because Mr. Ashbrook was a relatively unknown congressman from central Ohio. Mr. Buchanan, on the other hand, has had years of exposure to the voting public, especially Republican primary voters.

Further, Mr. Nixon had a longstanding relationship with the Republican right going back to his personal campaign against Alger Hiss. Mr. Nixon was chosen for vice president in 1952 by Dwight Eisenhower precisely because Eisenhower recognized that he needed to reach out to conservatives.

In 1968, Mr. Nixon ran as a conservative for president. And though some conservatives felt betrayed by President Nixon, as they did by Ronald Reagan once he became president, no conservative primary challenger to either ever stood any real chance because both had longstanding positive relations with the GOP right. Mr. Bush quite simply does not possess the personal relationship with conservative voters that both Mr. Nixon and Mr. Reagan did.

Second, the analogy lacks credibility in terms of the power and capabilities of the state parties. In 1972, GOP state parties, by and large, were active, vital organizations that could muster support for Richard Nixon.

Today, most state parties are ineffectual and frequently in debt, which affects their ability to turn out volunteers and voters.

Third, in 1972, there was no Federal Election Commission imposing state-by-state limits on what a presidential campaign could spend. Richard Nixon could spend whatever he needed to “blow away” John Ashbrook. Now, everybody must operate under the same limits if they choose to accept matching funds from the FEC presidential fund.

Yet most people in politics know money is not everything. One must offer a compelling reason to be for or against a candidate running for office. As the November elections proved, Harris Wofford could be outspent by Richard Thornburgh by $2 million in Pennsylvania and still win. Why? Because ideas and issues matter.

In New Jersey, GOP candidates for the state legislature were outspent, collectively, by $2 million dollars by their Democratic counterparts. And yet the legislature went from being Democratic to overwhelmingly Republican. Why? Because the Republicans opposed the massive tax increase engineered by Democratic Gov. Jim Florio. They communicated to the voters that, they, the Republicans, were against higher taxes and that the Democrats were for higher taxes.

Politics is not a science. It is an art form. Yet in politics B follows A and, in fact, is usually caused by A. Thus if Mr. Bush is to squelch the Buchanan challenge, he must first recognize the serious nature of the challenge and then come up with ideas and issues to deal with it.

For example, Mr. Bush says he supports the line-item veto but wants a constitutional test. Unfortunately, the only person who can initiate a constitutional test is George Bush himself. Mr. Bush should identify just one item in the federal budget and strike it out. My favorite example is one from two years ago when there was a grant to study the average length of a stewardess’ nose.

Mr. Bush should simply strike out the most offensive item and ask the Supreme Court to rule. The Democrats, predictably, will attack the president, thus appear to be defending wasteful spending of the taxpayers money. If the court rules against Mr. Bush, he’s still won politically by appearing to fight for the American taxpayer. If the court rules that, indeed, a president does have the right to veto spending programs, he wins on a policy level and political level. What does this have to do with Pat Buchanan? Nothing. That is precisely the point. Mr. Buchanan is reduced to just another cheerleader for Mr. Bush.

Additionally, Mr. Bush should come to terms with the 1990 Budget Agreement. Rather than defend it, he should simply say he was wrong, that he’s sorry and it will never happen again. The American people and especially GOP primary voters not only want to hear this, they need to.

Campaign advisers will vehemently disagree with this, but consider the following: In recent memory, one cannot recall more elected executives going down to defeat precisely because they said they wouldn’t raise taxes and then either did so or appeared to do so. Maggie Thatcher, Kay Orr, Jim Blanchard, Bob Martinez and others were driven from office because they opened up character questions about themselves by altering their position on taxes. It’s better for Mr. Bush to deal with it now and frame the terms of the debate rather than allow Mr. Buchanan and then his Democratic opponent to deal with the issue as they would like.

As for the “vision thing,” the single unique quality of America and our culture is that we believe in the future, that we can make a better life for our children, that we can solve our problems and that there is nothing we should either fear or fail to confront.

Ronald Reagan’s greatest contribution to America, as president, was revitalizing our hope for the future. We lost it under Mr. Nixon and Jimmy Carter. The American people do not want to hear that their president cannot lead them to solve the problems of our nation. They want him (or, in the future, her) to speak of, “the shining city on a hill.”

Other issues are “on the table” to take advantage of, including isolationism and Mr. Buchanan’s opposition to stopping Saddam Hussein. Specifically, what would the cost of home heating oil be in New Hampshire today if Mr. Bush had not moved against Saddam before Iraq occupied Saudi Arabia? Does Mr. Buchanan’s protectionism extend to oil imports that New Hampshire depends on?

Mr. Bush will defeat Mr. Buchanan. But he should also recognize that the Buchanan challenge is meaningful. Those same people who worked passionately for Ronald Reagan and then George Bush are the very same people who are now taking a close look at Pat Buchanan. Mr. Bush can keep the GOP right. But he first must recognize that it’s worth fighting for.

Craig Shirley, a Washington political consultant, worked for George Bush from 1985 to 1987, organizing conservative backing for his 1988 campaign. Mr. Shirley supports Mr. Bush for re-election.

LANGUAGE: ENGLISH

Copyright 1992 The Washington Times LLC All Rights Reserved

COLUMN RIGHT/ CRAIG SHIRLEY;GIVE BUCHANAN AND THE RIGHT THEIR DUE; IF BUSH IS TO SQUELCH THE CHALLENGE, HE MUST FIRST RECOGNIZE ITS SERIOUSNESS AS A THREAT.

While Bush Administration officials and the members of the Republican Establishment downplay the chances of Pat Buchanan in New Hampshire and beyond, GOP primary voters may feel something quite different.

Many in the Bush camp are likening Buchanan to John Ashbrook, saying that, like Ashbrook against Richard Nixon in 1972, Buchanan will go nowhere against Bush. This analogy is wrong and dangerous for Bush because it downplays Buchanan’s chances. If Buchanan exceeds low expectations, he will have done “better than expected.” In politics, perception is reality. Perceptions drive money, volunteers and the type of media your campaign gets.

But more to the point, the analogy is incorrect because Ashbrook was a relatively unknown Ohio congressman. Buchanan has tremendous visibility and recognition among voters.

Furthermore, Nixon had a longstanding relationship with the Republican right, going back to his personal campaign against Alger Hiss. Nixon was chosen as Dwight Eisenhower’s running mate precisely because Ike recognized that he needed to reach out to conservatives.

In 1968, Nixon ran for President as a conservative. And though some conservatives felt betrayed by President Nixon and then by President Ronald Reagan, no conservative primary challenger to either stood a chance because both had longstanding relations with the GOP right. Bush quite simply does not possess the personal relationship with conservative voters that Nixon and Reagan did.

Second, the analogy lacks credibility in terms of the power and the capabilities of the state parties. In 1972, GOP state parties were active, vital organizations that could muster support for Nixon. Today, most state parties are relatively weak and frequently in debt, which affects their ability to turn out volunteers and voters.

Third, in 1972 there was no Federal Election Commission imposing limits on what presidential campaigns could spend. Nixon could spend whatever he needed to “blow away” Ashbrook. Now, everybody must operate under the same limits if they want matching funds from the FEC.

Yet most people in politics know that money is not everything. Voters must be motivated to vote. As the November elections proved, Harris Wofford could be outspent by Richard Thornburgh by $2 million in Pennsylvania’s Senate race and still win. Why? Because voters are motivated by issues. Where a candidate stands on the issues matters.

In New Jersey, GOP candidates for the state Legislature were outspent, collectively, by $2 million by their Democratic counterparts, and yet the Legislature went from being Democratic to overwhelmingly Republican. Republicans opposed the massive tax increase engineered by Democratic Gov. Jim Florio and effectively communicated to voters that the Democratic legislators supported higher taxes.

Thus, if Bush is to squelch the Buchanan challenge, he must first recognize its serious nature and then come up with winning ideas and issues.

In addition, Bush should come to terms with the 1990 budget agreement. Rather than defending it, he should admit that he was wrong, apologize and never let it happen again.

Campaign advisers will vehemently disagree with this, but consider the following: In recent memory, one cannot recall more elected executives going down to defeat precisely because they said that they wouldn’t raise taxes and then either did so or appeared to do so. Margaret Thatcher, Kay Orr, Jim Blanchard, Bob Martinez and others were driven from office because they opened up character questions about themselves; they altered their position on taxes or appeared to do so. It’s better for Bush to deal with it now and frame the terms of the debate.

As for the “vision thing,” the single unique quality of America and our culture is that we believe in the future. Reagan’s greatest contribution to America was revitalizing our hope for the future. But hope stems from opportunity and opportunity stems from economics, which means that Bush should embrace a real and meaningful tax cut now.

Bush will defeat Buchanan, but he should also recognize that Buchanan’s challenge is meaningful. Those same people who worked passionately for Reagan and then Bush are the very same people who are now taking a close look at Buchanan. Bush can keep the GOP right. But he first must recognize that it’s worth fighting for.

LANGUAGE: ENGLISH

TYPE: Opinion

Copyright 1991 The Times Mirror Company; Los Angeles Times

 All Rights Reserved

GOP HAS CHANCE TO WIN OVER BLACK VOTE REPUBLICANS NEED TO CASH IN ON JUDGETHOMAS VICTORY.<

If one listens to the left, Robert Bork’s name has come to symbolize political action. “Borking” has passed into their political lexicon but in terms of the 1992 election, it could also come to be seen as Bork’s Revenge.

Clarence Thomas is now a member of the United States Supreme Court. Though he was damaged publicly and privately, he’s made of sterner stuff and will ultimately survive.

He convinced a majority of the American people and the U.S. Senate that he was treated unfairly by Anita Hill, the dominant fringe groups on the left and the Senate staff whose leak catapulted what the Senate Judiciary Committee deemed a “non-issue,” into the public arena for debate.

GIVEN HIS background, I suspect this good and decent man will handle this tragi-comic affair with the same grace and class with which he has handled other obstacles in his life.

On the other hand, grace and class is not how the Republicans should conduct their campaigns in 1992. In short, the GOP can “Bork” the liberals, in part by using the Clarence Thomas issue.

Blacks supported Thomas in astounding numbers according to most polls. This is, in part, due to Thomas’ charge that an “uppity black” who deigned to speak and think for himself would be lynched by the liberal establishment.

But the media and the liberals obviously, “just don’t get it.” What Thomas meant, quite simply, is that liberals expect blacks to stay on their ideological plantation and never question the Democrats’ failed social experiments that have led to a downward spiral in the quality of life for black Americans.

THOMAS QUESTIONS the programs, the success and, yes, the motives. The plight of black Americans is, by all accounts, worse than it was 25 years ago when Lyndon Johnson declared war on poverty, because, guess what — poverty won.

Billions of dollars later, more black children are born out of wedlock, fewer stay in school, and thus, more are trapped in the grinding malaise of poverty. The liberal establishment’s answer to their failed programs is ever bigger government and more money.

And the black “leadership” on the liberal plantation understand that they must toe the line if they want to keep getting money and power. But more and more blacks motivated by courage, not greed, are stepping forward like Clarence Thomas.

AS FAR AS white liberals are concerned, blacks should hold only one politically correct view of the world. And in this belief, white liberals expose themselves as the true racists.

Thomas’ charge of racism is on target because liberals genuinely see the black community as monolithic, rather than as it is, characterized by people on the left and right, as well as a significant portion (like whites) who are open minded. Republicans should understand that among black Americans there is a seething and growing resentment to what they see as plantation politics.

Not so astonishingly, the bulk of Thomas’ support among blacks came from those occupying the lower end of the economic scale, not middle or upper middle class blacks. Blacks want to be treated as individuals . . . not a terribly surprising concept, except to Ted Kennedy, Howard Metzenbaum, and the radical elements who tried to destroy Thomas through a campaign of leaks and lies.

THE GOP can capitalize on this growing resentment and, yes, this attempted “high tech lynching of an uppity black.” The message Republicans should project now and through 1992 is, on Election Day, don’t forget it was liberal Democrats who attempted to lynch a good and decent black man.

If you want to be treated as if you live on a plantation, if individuality and self-respect mean nothing to you, vote Democratic. But if you’re sick and tired of being treated as a second class citizen, if you’re sick and tired of being told that you’re a victim instead of being given an opportunity to take charge of your life, if you’re sick and tired of being taken for granted by the white liberals, then vote Republican.

Obviously, this message alone cannot suffice. The GOP must also emphasize positive and practical alternatives for black Americans, in the form of economic, political and cultural electives as opposed to redistribution politics. Republicans must work for empowerment by pushing the idea of enterprise zones, rewarding families that stay together with tax breaks, and providing an incentive to leave the welfare trap. Such a message can make blacks walk away from the liberal plantation.

Editor’s Note: Craig Shirley, a former Syracusan, is a Washington, D.C. GOP consultant.

LOAD-DATE: February 12, 2003

LANGUAGE: ENGLISH

Copyright 1991 Post-Standard, All Rights Reserved.